Grand Slam …… For the third time in a little over three years, ’Leave’ defeated ’Remain’ by a decisive margin in a nationwide vote. In echoes of 23rd June 2016, millions of ordinary people made extraordinary efforts to get to the polling stations in the belief that this time, their votes really would matter. And they did.
‘If Welsh miner Uncle Carl’s ‘Boris conversion’ was anything to go by, this wasn’t an election any more, it was a revolution. On Twitter, a Yorkshireman confirmed that ‘the locals were coming down from the hills to see off the dark forces’. Our people were rallying to save their country …. Quiet millions pulled on their coats, braved the pouring rain and went down to the polling stations …… The Remainers said they wanted a People’s Vote and they bloody well got one. And the People said: ‘NO to that insufferably arrogant Remainer Parliament blocking the EU referendum result because they thought they knew better; NO to the Remainer ’Supreme Court’; NO to Gina Miller; NO to BBC Question Time audiences packed with Momentum activists; NO to Jeremy Corbyn, whose rightful place is selling Socialist Worker outside Haringey station …‘
NO ! Did you get it this time ? Have we made ourselves clear ? For three and a half years, a contemptuous Remainer establishment told us that all the ‘old stupid Leave’ voters have died off. Last night we found out that we are still very much alive. Rather it was the anti-Brexit forces that were about to breath their last. Labour screwed over its traditional supporters and its traditional supporters screwed them right back, all the way from Bishop Auckland to Ynys Mon ….‘ (Allison Pearson, Daily Telegraph, 14th Dec 2019)
This time there can be no argument. No ifs, no buts. The UK’s EU membership will end on 31st January. The Remainer Parliament is dead; most of its key members retired or ousted at the ballot box. ‘Remain’ as a political cause is now finished. Nick Clegg’s ‘How To Stop Brexit’ and other nasty literary outpourings, are heading for the bookshops discount bin, eventually to be pulped.
The Local Campaign .…. In Mid-Dorset/North Poole, we decided not to stand a UKIP candidate. Voters faced a binary choice between a strong ‘Leaver’ Michael Tomlinson (Con) and a strong Remainer, Vikki Slade (LD), which made this a simple tactical decision for UKIP. The result was almost identical to 2015 and 2017; for the third time in four years, the LibDems failed even to dent Tomlinson’s majority. What’s that they say about doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result ?
In Poole, Nigel Farage’s last-minute decision to pull out over half the Brexit Party candidates, left voters with no choice. We were fortunate the Brexit Party candidate, David Young (UKIP candidate for Poole 2015) decided to continue as an Independent. He was greatly assisted by Canford Heath Ukipper, Vicky Spence, who helped to manage and organise his campaign, taking to the streets and driving a very effective ‘Brexit’ trailer around town. Sadly this great effort was not reflected in votes, but we know from comments made by voters in the shopping precinct and at the polling stations, that many agreed with David’s campaign. We may not have won the vote, but we won most of the arguments.
Trans-UK ? ‘Transitioning’ is all the rage these days. The UK too is set to ‘transition’ from the 31st January, but what exactly we will be turning into is still unclear. The Conservative’s Election mantra, ’Let’s Get Brexit Done’ struck a chord with the public, but it depends entirely on what is meant by ’done’. While Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is some improvement on May’s abysmal ‘vassal’ treaty, 90% is the same text. It’s an EU Treaty, subject to the exclusive rulings of the ECJ. The WA is not ‘a deal’; it sets the legal parameters for a deal, designed to disadvantage the UK in the free trade negotiations. The devil is in the detail.
The WA prevents the UK from taking ‘any action likely to conflict with or impede EU foreign policy’. The Political Declaration (legally binding) obliges the UK ‘to agree to consider‘ collaboration with the European Defence Agency, the European Defence Fund and PESCO; all EU-driven plans to supplant the role of NATO. This could come back to haunt us in the event of a future EU-led war against Russia. The ‘transition’ period may be extended beyond the end of 2020, and the WA itself could extend beyond 2022. During ’transition’, the UK will be subject to all current and future EU laws with no say, while paying at least £39bn minimum, to the EU budget. We forfeit our share of UK assets in the European Investment Bank, yet remain liable for up to 500bn euros of guarantees via the EU budget. The EU and its employees are to be immune from UK regulations, criminal law and exempt from UK tax. The WA requires ’co-operation on regulations of fisheries in a non-discriminatory manner‘, which could mean the CFP continues in UK waters.
The WA commits the UK to ’deep regulatory and customs cooperation’ with the EU in any free trade deal. This could lead to an EU/UK Customs Union by another name, prejudicing future FTA’s with the US and other major world economies. Should Boris Johnson reject the EU’s terms and go for WTO rules or ‘Canada +’, a new customs border will be required in the Irish Sea. Worries about severing Northern Ireland from mainland Britain may be exaggerated, when set against the huge benefits a WTO Brexit would bring. Although they have different currency, excise and VAT, there are already ‘frictionless’ systems in place enabling free trade across the border between North and South. All that is required is to adapt them to a ’virtual’ border in the Irish Sea.
So there is still a way to go before we can say we have fully left the EU. However there are encouraging signs that with an 80-seat majority, Johnson’s new government will be pursuing a robust approach. The Withdrawal Agreement is not the end of ‘Brexit‘, but the end of the beginning. We must treat it as an initial step forward on the path. But the struggle for UK independence will only be finished when we say it is; so far ‘they’ have only done half the job. Should Johnson’s government fail to fight for Britain with full vigour during ‘transition’, we could yet end up exchanging one form of EU servitude for another. The only party that stands unambiguously for the UK’s full sovereignty under the UN Charter, is UKIP.
Raising the Curtain ….. When I joined UKIP in 1993, I could not possibly have imagined that we would change history so fundamentally. It is entirely due to the efforts of UKIP and all of you, that the political debate has shifted so far and our country is now about to leave the EU. Some ‘Remainers’ will no doubt become ‘Rejoiners’. Every little bump and blip in the economy will be blamed on ‘Brexit’ by them and BBC/C4 News. But unlike before, they will have to find some positive reasons why we should be a member of the EU; something that has so far, eluded them entirely.
Apart from Brexit, the Conservatives are in the wrong on most contentious issues that divide the UK; from Cultural Marxism to Climate Alarmism; from Freedom of Speech to 5G and Electoral Reform; from Left-wing Media Bias to the Sexualisation of Children in Schools. They do not have the courage of their convictions and are dancing to their opponents tune. This leaves a massive hole in UK politics which is waiting for a truly libertarian party to speak out on these issues. Many people held their noses and voted Conservative just to ‘get Brexit done’ but feel completely unrepresented by the leftward cultural drift of all the so-called ‘mainstream’ parties. UKIP must be the party that dares to think outside the box and stand up for them.
David Kurten, AM came to a lunch of UKIP Dorset branches on 8th December (which also contained a few welcome ‘returnees’ from the Brexit Party) and gave an inspirational speech. We were heartened to hear that he intends to stand for UKIP Leadership. He could be the ideal person to spearhead UKIP’s ‘Second Act’; where we begin once more to exert pressure on the Conservatives, this time against the forces of Cultural Marxism, in much the same way as we began the struggle against the EU all those years ago.
The End of the World Is Nigh ……..
‘Natural fires in the Amazon are rare and the majority of these fires were set by farmers preparing Amazon-adjacent farmland for next year’s crops and pasture. Much of the land that was burning was not old-growth rain forest, but land that had already been cleared and set for agricultural use’ (New York Times, 23rd August)
‘It is routine for farmers and ranchers in tropical areas to burn their fields to control pests and weeds and encourage new growth. While problematic deforestation is still taking place in the Amazon region, a 2018 study in Nature reported that the global tree canopy increased by 865,000 sq miles from 1982 – 2016. As Brazil becomes wealthier, deforestation in the Amazon will likely turn towards aforestation, as it has in many other countries’ (Ronald Bailey, ‘Reason‘, 23rd Aug)
‘Every now and then the mask slips and we get a glimpse of the elitist and authoritarian movement that lurks beneath the hippyish green façade. The hysteria over the fires in Brazil is one of those moments. As well-off, privileged Westerners rage against Brazil …… and even flirt with the idea of sending outside forces to take charge of the Amazon, we can see the borderline imperialist mindset that motors so much green thinking ….’ (Brendan O’Neil, ‘Spiked‘, 23rd Aug)
‘The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the British Geological Survey (BGS) have been forced to update the World Magnetic Model, due to the speed with which the magnetic North Pole is moving east, from the Canadian Arctic towards Siberia at a rate of 55km over the last 20 years; researchers also confirmed that the earth’s magnetic field is weakening at a rate of about 5% every 100 years. Dr Ciaran Beggan, a geophysicist and BGS geomagnetic specialist, told FT ‘the movement of the pole has been much faster since the 1990’s than at any time for the last four centuries’ and admitted that scientists ‘really don’t know much about the changes in the earth’s core that are driving it’. Scientists have expressed concerns about the movement and its impact on the magnetic field protecting Earth, without which it would be left vulnerable to damaging solar flares‘ (IceAgeNow, 15th Dec)
‘A handful of protesters on the ground floor of the cavernous Cape Town International Convention Centre spread fake oil on the ground and chanted, demanding an end to fossil fuels. Two floors above, the hundreds of delegates at Africa Oil Week were largely unaware, and mostly unmoved …….. Africa’s leaders have supported the good that oil, gas and coal can bring to a continent where some 600 million people lack access to electricity. ‘Energy is the catalyst for growth,’ said Gwede Mantashe, South Africa’s energy minister and national chair of the ruling African National Congress. ‘They even want to tell us to switch off all the coal-generated power stations ….. until you tell them, you know if we do that, you’ll breathe fresh air in the darkness’. ‘Under no circumstances are we going to be apologizing,’ said Gabriel Obiang Lima, energy minister of Equatorial Guinea, adding that they need to exploit these resources to create jobs and boost economic development. ‘Anybody from out of the continent saying we should not develop those fields, that is criminal. It is very unfair.’ (Reuters, 8th Nov)
Professor Ian Plimer is Australia’s best-known geologist. He is Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne, where he was Professor and Head of Earth Sciences (1991-2005) He has published more than 120 scientific papers and was one of the trinity of editors for the five-volume Encyclopedia of Geology. ’The Climate Change Delusion & The Great Electricity Rip-Off’ (Connor Court 2019) is his eleventh book written for the general public. Others are: ‘‘A Short History of Planet Earth’ (2000), ‘Heaven and Earth’ (2009), ‘How To Get Expelled from School; A Guide to Climate Change for Pupils and Parents’ (2011); ‘Not For Greens’ (2014) and ‘Heaven and Hell; Global Warming; The Missing Science’ (2016). Watch his latest speech on:
Another good source of scientific evidence to counter the man-made Global Warming frenzy, is Piers Corbyn’s ‘Weather Action’ website (http://www.weather action.com). Don’t let the fact that he’s Jeremy’s brother put you off – he’s far more sensible !
Stories You Won’t Hear on the BBC ……
The BBC & C4 were determined to shift the focus of the public’s attention by pretending that this election wasn’t about Brexit. The people knew different. They knew it was all about Brexit; it wouldn’t have been called were it not for the democracy deniers at Westminster. Meanwhile Huw Leftwards and his chums are still at it:
‘Since Thursday night, the tone of the BBC’s coverage has been one of disbelief, that the people of Redcar and Stoke-on-Trent might actually support Boris Johnson and the Conservatives. It must be down to ‘populism’ or ‘nationalism’, or the misleading claims of ‘right-wing’ politicians …’ (Daily Telegraph, 14th Dec)
‘A Norstat poll taken between 21st – 29th November found that 64% of people believe that the BBC expresses some degree of bias. 38% of respondents believe that the BBC is ‘somewhat biased’, while a further 26% feel it is ‘greatly biased’. ….. 72% of Leavers said the BBC was either ‘somewhat or greatly biased‘, while a surprising 59% of Remainers expressed the same opinion. Reports from NewsWatch (2017) and Civitas (2018), found that pro-Leave views were suppressed on the ’Today’ programme, BBC Radio 4’s flagship news programme…..’ (Breitbart News, 4th Dec)
‘Comedian Nish Kumar (the BBC’s ‘Mash Report’) was booed off stage after making jokes about ‘Brexit at the Lord’s Taverners annual charity cricket lunch ….’ (Teletext, 5th Dec)
‘Exam markers have been accused of being politically correct, as figures show that the number of pupils penalised for ‘offensive’ material has doubled in a year. This year, 450 pupils were disciplined for including ‘inappropriate, offensive or obscene’ material in their GCSE and A-Level scripts or coursework, up from 225 in 2018 .…… Chris McGovern, a former government advisor and director of the Campaign for Real Education, said: ’The intellectual quality of the examiners has plummeted in recent decades ….. They now rely on a rigid mark scheme and any child who steps outside it, certainly in a non-politically correct way, is likely to be penalised ….. Frankly, some are just too thick to understand that bright children sometimes give less orthodox responses. It’s a good thing if children are answering intelligently, even if it does at time break PC rules ….’ (Daily Telegraph, 14th Dec)
‘The Australian government has set new guidelines to combat what has been described as ‘unprecedented levels of foreign interference’ …….. Universities will have to name their research partners and financial donors, following growing concerns about China’s influence on Australian campuses’ (Teletext, 14th Nov)
BOOK REVIEW ….. ‘Last year Stephen Smith, an American-born longtime Africa correspondent for the Paris dailies Le Monde and Libération, now Professor of African and African-American studies at Duke University, published (in French) ‘La Ruée vers l’Europe‘, a short, sober, open-minded book about the coming mass migration from Africa. The most important book written until then on the subject, it quickly became the talk of Paris. It has now been published in English.’
‘Smith begins by laying out some facts. Africa is adding people at a rate never before seen on any continent. ‘The population of sub-Saharan Africa alone, now about a billion people, will more than double to 2.2 billion people by mid-century, while that of Western Europe will fall to a doddering half billion or so ….. The figures Smith uses are not something he dreamed up while out on a walk; they are official UN estimates, which in recent years have underestimated population shifts.’
‘Smith’s model of what to expect upsets popular and political stereotypes. He insists that absolute poverty does not cause migration. The trip from Africa to Europe only becomes possible when a young man can assemble a stake of about $2,000. Once he does, there is no better investment for him or for his village than striking out for Europe. If Smith is right (and the research of Oxford economist Paul Collier indicates that he is), then the ‘consensus migration’ policy of the European Union is an exorbitant mistake.’
‘The extraordinarily disruptive mass movement of labour and humanity from Africa to Europe, should it come, will bring Europe no meaningful benefits. Narratives of Europe’s enrichment by migration are post-facto rationalizations for something that Europe is undergoing, not choosing. Europe does not need an influx of youthful African labour, Smith writes, because both robotization and rising retirement ages are shrinking the demand for it. Migrant labourers cannot fund the European welfare state. In fact, they will undermine it, because the cost of schools, health, and other government services that newcomers draw on, exceeds their tax payments. Nor will the mass exodus help Africa. It will sap the rising middle class in precisely those countries (Senegal, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, Kenya), with the best chances for economic success.’
‘Smith’s ideas divided opinion in France in a curious way. President Macron sang the book’s praises. Various prestigious bodies, including the venerable Académie Française, bestowed prizes on it ….. And yet the book absolutely scandalized French intellectuals and academicians, in a way that might prefigure its reception here … If Smith is right-wing or ‘anti-African‘, he has a funny way of showing it. He built his career with the battling daily Libération, at a time when the newspaper was midway between the Maoist worldview and the American-style social-justice politics it espouses today. Smith uses the same demographic projections; those of the UN and the European Union, that everybody else does. Where he differs with his academic critics is in his migration projections, and they differ only because Smith has a wider-angled view of the factors that drive African migration, and a nearer acquaintance with the continent’s history and society. It is hard to imagine a person better suited to undertake a study on such a sensitive subject. Smith knows the countries of Africa in their intimate specificity …..’ (’Out of Africa’ by Christopher Caldwell, National Review, 26th Aug 2019)
Well Fancy That ! ‘There was a lengthy debate about the name of the new party ….. ‘The Reform Party’ would have rung down the ages, but in truth belonged to the history books …… altogether too magnificent and like many magnificent phrases, too vague. ’UK Independence Party’ was resolved upon simply because it succinctly declared our origin and our principal aim …..’ (Nigel Farage, 2011, ‘Flying Free’)
Bedtime For Bercow & Co ? ‘Still they fight, still they kick, gripping the banister rail and screaming that ‘NO, NO, NO, they are NOT going to school, they are NOT going to eat their vegetables; they are NOT going to bed‘. Those of us who have been parents of young children know how it plays out, this sort of thing. They bite, thump us on the chest; tell us they hate us forever and ever and that we have ruined their lives. We keep calm and quietly detach their pink little fingers from whatever temporary anchor they have grasped. Eventually, though still with much silent sobbing, they do what is asked of them because in the end, there is no alternative’ (Quentin Letts, Daily Mail, 9th May, 2018)
Don’t forget to check the monthly Dorset Digest (via e-mail) locally, as well as checking our branch website www.ukipmiddorset.org
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e-mail: email@example.com All items in this newsletter are personal views only and do not necessarily represent the views of the UK Independence Party Mid-Dorset & North Poole