Newsletter 39 – Referendum Special

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Jul 20, 2016 Comments Off on Newsletter 39 – Referendum Special John Butler

The Secret People …… ‘Smile at us, pay us, pass us, but do not quite forget. For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet ……’ (G.K. Chesterton, ‘The Secret People’, 1907)

Maybe it’s the British way to put up with all sorts of unsatisfactory things, to get by; to make do, to bear almost any burden and not complain; not to act to do anything about it until its almost too late. But when Britain’s ‘secret people’ do finally stir themselves to action, it’s invariably effective and usually decisive.

They’ve spoken now. On 23rd June 2016, the people of Britain chose optimism over pessimism, hope over despair; courage over fear, freedom over servitude, democracy over dictatorship, truth over lies, confidence over self-doubt. To the astonishment of the political establishment and much of the media, they turned their backs on all the lies, scaremongering and negativity that has poured forth relentlessly from Westminster over the last 8 weeks. It might just be the start of a new golden age in our nation’s history.

Many thanks to those who helped the campaign; delivering leaflets, helping on stalls, putting up ‘Vote Leave’ signs, talking to people, writing to the papers. This was team effort, not just UKIP members but all supporters of the cause, including Conservative, Labour, and non-party. Thank you to all the voters, especially those who battled mobility problems to get to the polling stations.

We hope that our efforts will light the path ahead and give new courage to all those in countries such as Greece, who have been so sorely mistreated by the EU project. Our victory is your victory too.

Independence Day ..…. ‘Be of good cheer Master Ridley, for we have this day lit such a candle in England as shall with God’s grace, never be put out ….. ’ (Bishop Hugh Latimer, Oxford 1555).

We did it. We finally did it. We won. Vote Leave’s 17,410,742 votes (52%) was the largest single vote in British political history. Shortly after the Eastleigh by-election in February 2013, Nigel Farage predicted a ’political ‘earthquake’. Now its happened. It’s the end of all that Britain’s political media thought they knew for certain. The Conservative and Labour parties are in complete disarray and may even split entirely. In the next few days and weeks, things could happen very quickly. By the time you read this, the political landscape at Westminster could be very different. The small blip in the financial markets simply reflected the fact that Britain now has a PM who has resigned but hasn’t quite gone yet; the absence of any Plan ‘B’ for Brexit, and a Chancellor who has gone into hiding.

‘It seems the first to resign was Larry the cat, who was seen leaving No.10 quite early in the morning ….’ (Readers Letter, Telegraph, 25th June)

With a few exceptions, press reaction to the result has been quite positive. The statesmanlike remarks of Mervyn (Lord) King and Boris Johnson have helped to reassure the financial markets and calm the public mood. China and other major trading partners seem quite relaxed about the prospects of Britain leaving the EU and even Cameron’s old ‘fright-night’ buddies Barack Obama, Mark Carney and the CBI have done complete U-turns. Juncker and Merkel now seem to want Brexit to happen as soon as possible; perhaps the only time we agree with them. Only the BBC and C4 News seem to think it their duty to continue ’Project Fear’ and to smear the ‘Leavers‘ at every opportunity.

Inevitably some of the ‘Remains’ and their supporters in Parliament just won’t accept what‘s happened. Some may attempt a rearguard action to frustrate the verdict of 23/6. UKIP must remain ultra-vigilant over the next few weeks to highlight any chicanery from Westminster MP’s to steal the people’s victory. The priority for any new administration should be to form a body to deal with the terms of Brexit as soon as possible. It should be cross party, to include UKIP and the more sensible elements of the Labour party.

The National Campaign ….. Contrary to what the media pundits expected, it was the ‘Old’ Labour vote in the North, Midlands and Wales that swung the balance towards ‘Leave‘. In fact ‘Leave’ voting patterns corresponded very closely with the geographical spread of UKIP support in the May 2015 General Election, showing that all the hard work put in last year did not go to waste. It also coincided with Nigel’s battlebus tours of northern areas just before 23/6 (a fact little noticed by the media). There is a massive problem looming for Labour. Not only have they lost Scotland (and are in the process of losing Wales), they also have a complete disconnect with the English working class voters.

The referendum campaign and results highlight a sharp political divide in the UK between on the one hand, politicians, civil servants, state employees, leaders of big business, big finance, media and arts council ‘luvvies’, left-wing comedians, teachers, university academics and students; and on the other; the working class, independent small and medium sized business entrepeneurs, state pensioners, the working poor, and ‘shire county’ England of all classes, ethnic groups and cultures.

To halt this drift and bring people together again, a post 23/6 government should act to stop immediately, the supply of all EU ‘educational’ materials in state schools and to sack any teachers found indoctrinating pupils with political propaganda. Some youngsters seem to have no idea about concepts such as parliamentary democracy or sovereignty. EU ‘citizenship’ should be removed from the syllabus. This doesn’t need new legislation, just a proper application of the 1986 Education Act. ’Monnet Professors’ (sponsored by the EU to disseminate their propaganda) in UK Universities should be named and shamed. Local Council ‘embassies’ (offices) in Brussels should be closed and publicly funded propaganda ’services’ provided by the EU to UK Local Authorities, ceased.

In the meantime, we must be patient. An Ashcroft poll of young voters carried out just after voting showed that it was their fears over the economy, jobs, foreign travel and rights of movement to Europe that figured most in their decision to ’Remain’. In short, they had absorbed most of the lying propaganda from ’Project Fear’. As they grow up, their experience of a new independent Britain will show them that these fears were unfounded and they will in time, come to realise that they have been badly misinformed.

We now have a major task to rebuild the public’s confidence in our country, which has been seriously damaged by the destructive narratives of the ‘Remain’ campaign. We hope that everyone, especially the young, will soon start to see the opportunities ahead and embrace the future of our country with the hope and enthusiasm it deserves.

The Scottish Question ….. As expected, Scotland voted to remain in the EU, though not by the landslide margin that some had predicted (62% – 38%). Nonetheless, it has given rise to renewed fear that Scotland could leave the UK soon following another referendum. This prospect understandably alarms many people. So is it really likely to happen ?

Firstly, we shouldn’t assume that the EU referendum shows that the Scots want to stay in the EU more than they want to stay in the UK. If it came to a straight choice in a second referendum between these two options, at least the 55% who voted for the UK in the Sept 14 referendum would be likely to want to stay in a UK outside of the EU, probably more. Why ?

During the 2014 referendum, Brussels made it clear that Scotland could not rely on the UK’s current membership to stay in the EU, but would have to apply as a new member state. The Bank of England also made it clear that Scotland could not continue to use the £ or stay within the security of the ‘sterling zone’. A Scotland applying to join the EU would be required under the Lisbon Treaty to join the euro and share the liability for the Eurozone’s mountain of toxic debt.

Scotland is heavily subsidised by Westminster via the English taxpayer. It has accumulated a huge public sector and social welfare infrastructure which it cannot possibly afford or sustain on its own. Each year in Scotland, £15bn more is spent on public services than is raised in taxes. The price of its main asset, oil, is at an all time low. If it decided to join the EU, Scotland’s membership fee would be an additional £1.5bn a year.

As a debtor state therefore, Scotland’s terms of entry into the EU would most likely be similar to the ’austerity’ imposed on Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal by the EU/ECB/IMF troika. This could only mean swingeing public sector and welfare cuts. The Scots are no fools and know when they’re well off.

Northern Ireland also voted to ‘Remain’, although by a lesser margin than Scotland (56% – 44%). Interestingly, the strongest support for ‘Remain’ was in Sinn Fein areas (doesn’t that tell you something). Predictably they have begun to bang the drum for a ‘United Ireland’. However all that’s needed to maintain the status quo is a bilateral agreement between the Republic and UK governments to a scheme of ID cards for Irish residents to enable the free flow of goods and visitors across the border to continue. A similar arrangement with Spain should allay any concerns in Gibraltar too.

Old People Shouldn’t Vote ……. One of the most offensive arguments peddled by the ‘Remains’ was the idea that older people should abstain in the referendum, as they won’t be here for much longer and have no right to put their own selfish interests first and deny their ‘grandkiddies’ a ‘golden’ future in the EU.

It never seemed to occur to them that the reason so many of our older citizens were out there selflessly performing heroic deeds for the ‘Leave‘ campaign is precisely because they really do care about their grandchildren‘s future. They want them to grow up in a free country, just like they did. They do not want them to grow up in an unaccountable superstate run by bankers, bureaucrats and corrupt politicians; a state with no accountability, no democracy, no prosperity and no hope. They want something better for their families.

Some Notes From the Referendum Diary ……

Wed 4th May; Barack Obama visits Britain to support ‘Remain’ (* has he not read The Gettysburg Address ?)

Mon. 9th May; More ‘Project Fear’ as Mark Carney (Bank of England) warns of financial disaster if we leave the EU. He fails to say how £ will be damaged by staying in (Stock Exchange moves to Germany, £ exposed to yet more toxic euro-debt; more pressure to join euro; increased EU regulation on City …… )

Sat.14th May; Launch of ‘Brexit – The Movie’

Mon 16th May: George Osbrown’s ‘dodgy dossier’ of Treasury forecasts, warning of Brexit disaster (they said the same if we didn’t join the euro; left the ERM etc )

Tues. 24th May: Jeremy Paxman Goes to Brussels – is visibly shocked at what he finds. The ‘Remains’ complain of BBC bias (!)

Fri. 27th May; Ian Duncan-Smith and Michael Gove call for ‘Aussie’ style points based immigration system, lauded as ‘a revolution’ by Daily Mail. They must have been reading UKIP’s 2015 GE manifesto ……

Mon. 30th May; Postal ballots issued by Electoral Commission; some ‘guidance notes’ are issued with a ‘helping hand’ positioned over the ‘Remain’ box.

Tues. 31st May: A public outcry (and threats of court injunction?) forces withdrawal and pulping of all the dodgy guidance notes.

Thurs. 2nd June; Cameron faces a live audience for the first time on Sky TV; visibly rattled by audience Q’s

Tues. 7th June; Farage v Cameron on ITV; staged so that Cameron doesn’t have to debate directly with Nigel. Nigel wins poll of undecided voters by 63% – 29% (Times Pulse). A ‘toxic brand’, indeed !

Thurs 9th June; Eddie Izzard ‘attacks’ Nigel on QT. As a result, ‘Leave’ gets a sharp boost in the polls.

Sat. 11th June; Independent Poll puts ’Leave’ 10 points ahead. Labour MP John Mann joins Brexit campaign – polls show Labour vote is swinging away from ‘Remain’ towards ‘Leave’

Sun. 12th June; Cameron threatens pensioners will lose their pensions if UK leaves EU. A major fundraiser resigns from ‘Remain’ campaign team in disgust.

Mon. 13th June; Cameron turns to ‘Crash Gordon’ to try and save ‘Remain‘ campaign. Labour party Regional Directors admit the situation is ‘Bad .. Very Bad’.

Tues. 14th June – Hip Hip Hooray ! – The Sun is coming out (for Brexit) today ! Bookies cut ‘Brexit’ odds to 5/4 on. Remember ‘It’s The Sun Wot Wun It‘.

Wed. 15th June – EU Commission schedule an Emergency Meeting to discuss possibility of ‘Brexit’. Juncker threatens to visit London promising a ‘new deal’ for the UK. (This is the man who once said: ‘when things get serious, you have to lie …’)

Wed. 15th June – Nigel and the fishermen’s flotilla up the Thames is confronted by self-righteous poseur ‘Sir’ Bob Geldof, who rants and raves at him incoherently. ‘Leave’ lead in the polls grows. Is David Cameron running out of idiots ?

Thurs. 16th June – Murder of Labour MP Jo Cox. Out of respect, all major campaigning is suspended for 48 hours. Our events planned for the final weekend are put on hold.

Sun. 19th June – The uneasy truce breaks as some of the more rabid ‘Remainers’ (Polly Toynbee, The Guardian) attempt to blame Thursday’s tragic event on the ’Leave’ campaign. An already nasty ‘Remain’ campaign just gets even nastier ……

Mon. 20th June – Everyone’s feeling a bit down after the awful events of last Thursday, but we must push on and give it all we’ve got left in the last few days. Final leafleting begins

Mon. 20th June: UKIP’s ‘Chicken Run’ film is released online, adding a welcome note of humour and raising morale …..

Tues. 21st June; In a desperate last ditch scare story, George Osbrown threatens an emergency budget and the cessation of public spending after ‘Brexit’.

The Local Campaign ….. All the Dorset constituencies were won by ’Vote Leave’, in most cases winning by above average margins:

Poole: Remain 35,741 (41.83%), Leave 49,707 (58.17%)
Bournemouth: Remain 41,473 (45,12%), Leave 50,453 (54.88%)
Christchurch: Remain 12,782 (41.17%), Leave 18,268 (58.83%)
East Dorset: Remain 24,786 (43.60%), Leave 33,702 (57.62%)
North Dorset: Remain 18,399 (43.60%), Leave 23,802 (56.40%)
West Dorset: Remain 31,924 (48.97%), Leave 33,267 (51.03)
Weymouth & Portland: Remain 14,903 (38.96%), Leave 23,352 (61.04%)
Purbeck: Remain 11,754 (40.93%), Leave 16,966 (59.07%)

It was ‘Leave’s’ ground campaigns locally that won the day, mainly because we were out there being visible and talking to people, whereas the ‘Remains’ on the whole, were not.

Mid-Dorset & North Poole’s MP, Michael Tomlinson held three well attended public meetings (Wimborne, Wareham and Broadstone) to discuss the referendum. He proved a persuasive advocate for the ‘Leave’ campaign, ‘winning’ 71% of the audiences to vote ‘Leave’.

Out For the Count ….. ‘As Polling and Counting Agents for East Dorset, Diana and I join our team at Two Rivers Centre in Christchurch at 11.00 pm to monitor the counting of votes. Our mood is slightly subdued, as exit polls predict a narrow victory for ‘Remain’. Still, they’ve been wrong before …….’

‘Our task is to watch the votes being counted and to pick up any errors, first to make sure that no ‘Leave’ votes are put in the Remain bundles, and secondly, to ensure any bundles of 100 ‘Leave’ votes do not have the ‘Remain’ wrapper put around them. When you’ve had no sleep, in the small hours of the morning, this isn’t as simple as it sounds. What must it be like for the counting staff …?’

‘From the TV bar upstairs we get intermittent reports on the counting floor of how it’s going nationally. Great early results in Sunderland and Broxbourne put ‘Leave‘ slightly ahead, but gradually the votes for London and Scotland come rolling in, putting ’Remain’ back in front ‘.

‘It looks like its going to be on a knife edge nationally, so every ‘Leave’ vote here is vital as it‘s added to the national total. We try and shut out the media coverage and concentrate on the count before us. Thankfully the counting staff at Christchurch seem to be very capable and there are few errors to be seen ……’

‘The London and Scottish results are all but done and as Birmingham fails to go for ‘Remain’ as predicted, we might still have a chance. When Slough, with its large Asian business community, votes for ‘Leave’, we start to believe that it might be possible ………’

‘Back at the floor, the piles of 100 begin to be placed on the counting tables. East Dorset and Christchurch both seem to be going for ‘Leave’, roughly by a margin of 3 to 2. We get news that North Dorset and Bournemouth have both gone to ‘Leave’. But it’s not over yet, so we must keep watching the votes here; nationally, every one is vital ….’

‘Richard Turner comes down to the counting floor to tell us that ‘Leave’ are now 500,000 votes ahead nationally and that the BBC are calling it 80% likely for ‘Leave’. We can hardly dare to hope ….. It’s not over yet though, keep watching the votes here, every one counts nationally ……’

‘The shire counties votes come rolling in. Upstairs there is a loud cheer in the TV bar as the BBC announce that ‘Leave’ are now 1 million votes ahead nationally and cannot be caught …….’

‘Finally, a declaration. ‘Leave’ has won Christchurch and East Dorset, by roughly similar margins. Although we’re dead on our feet, our gallant little band raise a cheer; we can hardly believe what’s happened …..’

‘At 6.00 am we stumble out into the bright sunlight of a beautiful, crisp, early summer morning. We’re getting our country back at last. Nothing will be the same again. It’s an extraordinary feeling and it’s hardly begun to sink in yet. If we can manage to stay awake for another couple of hours, we might celebrate with a Brexit breakfast; a full English would do nicely ! ………’

* A Reminder for Mr Obama:
‘We here resolve ….. that this nation under God, shall have a new birth of freedom and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth …’
(Abraham Lincoln, The Gettysburg Address, 1863)

Items for next Edition by 30th September to:
John Butler, 20 Nightjar Close, Poole BH17 7YN
All items in this newsletter are personal views only and do not necessarily represent the views of the UK Independence Party Mid-Dorset & North Poole