EXIT STRATEGY ….. As we look ahead to the New Year and the possibility of an EU referendum in 2016, it is worth looking at some possible scenarios.
There is no doubt that an ‘In’ vote will be seen as a massive green light for Euro-federalists everywhere to advance their project of European political union with all haste. One of the key messages that we must get across to the people of Britain is that an ’In’ vote is not a vote to keep the status quo, let alone Cameron’s increasingly absurd looking ‘reform package‘. It is a vote for the EU’s project of ‘ever closer political union‘, which is developing in new directions all the time and continues relentlessly, night and day as we speak. By March 2017, the Lisbon Treaty will allow the EU to block any national referendum which they don’t want, and ignore the results of any that are unfavourable to them (as they have already in France, Holland, Denmark and Ireland). By 2020 (by the Lisbon Treaty), the euro will become the sole official currency of the EU. As this was signed by Labour PM Gordon Brown on Britain‘s behalf, it will be interesting to see how Cameron deals with that (if he‘s still in post). Developments that are already in hand to form a single European police, army and judicial system, will accelerate. If people really do not want any of these things to happen, they cannot afford to risk voting ‘In’.
Would an ‘In’ vote mean the end of UKIP? Most certainly not. The EU won’t suddenly become a good idea just because at a certain point in time, a marginal percentage of British voters might have been brainwashed, frightened or misled. As the malignant consequences of the EU project become ever more obvious in people’s daily lives, the need for UKIP will be greater than ever. It is likely that any referendum result will be extremely close, so even a large minority of 40% – 45% voting to leave will want a political voice to be there speaking for them in the future. It will also mean that most of that 40% – 45% will finally realise the futility of continuing to vote for the Westminster Three, opening up the possibility of a UKIP surge at the next General Election similar to that enjoyed by the SNP in 2015.
That is why the Conservatives are doing all they can to marginalise UKIP’s role in the referendum campaign, and why we mustn’t let them. The EU is, after all, our specialist subject.
Let’s look at what might happen with (as we hope) a ‘Leave’ vote. Firstly, don’t expect the government to act upon it quickly, if at all. Any referendum held after March 2017, the EU will probably ignore anyway. Of the two legal mechanisms available for Britain to leave the EU, the quickest and surest (an Act of Parliament to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act) can only be done with a majority of UKIP MP’s in Parliament, which is unlikely within the next 5 years. So that leaves us with Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which has a minimum two year period for the exit process to be agreed. Should the government decide to instigate Article 50, we can expect this process to take much (much) longer. Unfortunately Britain has a gold medal in civil service obfuscation (think Sir Humphrey Appleby), particularly where such filibustering will be covertly encouraged by the government of the day. If five years is a long time for Lord Chilcot to deliver his report, you’ve seen nothing yet. In the meantime, the EU project will roll on to Britain’s detriment, unabated, and clamour for another referendum (to reverse the original result) will begin to grow.
Even if a ‘Leave’ vote is acted upon by the government of the day and our exit from the EU is accomplished speedily and cleanly, are we then going to step aside and hand it all back to the people who have led this country astray for so long? The need for a strong UKIP to form a party of government will become even greater. So the referendum result, while extremely important, isn’t likely to be the end of things. It will be yet another stage in an ongoing political process, the outcome of which may take many years to reach its conclusion. UKIP must be in it for the long game, with the ultimate aim of restoring British independence no matter how long it takes. In the meantime, we must keep our branches strong and our troops in good shape, not just for the immediate challenge that lies ahead, but also for those that will almost certainly lie beyond.
PULLING THE WOOL …… In the 2015 Conservative election manifesto it said about the EU; ‘We want an end to our commitment to an ever closer union‘. In June, David Cameron confirmed that it would be one of his ’red lines’ in any re-negotiation. Since then there has been much media speculation about how this might be done (a piece of paper perhaps?). Yet at a recent summit in Madrid, the European People’s Party (EPP) which Conservative MEP’s belong to, re-confirmed its commitment by passing a motion: ’We must unite citizens, integrate economies, remove borders and join forces in pursuit of common European well being’. A reminder that whatever its members may say or think privately, the Conservatives remain the party of euro-federalism and Cameron’s ‘re-negotiations’ are no more than a sham.
THE BRUSSELS BROADCASTING CORPORATION ….. According to the Daily Telegraph (21st Oct), all BBC reporters and presenters are to be sent on training courses to ensure that they report the forthcoming EU referendum in an objective, impartial manner (there has to be a first time for everything). Before we get too excited, BBC Head of News, James Harding has made it clear that ’Europe’ can and will continue to be used by the BBC as ‘conversational shorthand’ for the EU. It is disingenuous in the extreme for the BBC to claim such terminology is consistent with its public charter. By calling the EU ’Europe’ it is just a short step (one which the BBC often takes), to present those who support the EU as ’pro-European’ (progressive, liberal, broad minded), whereas its opponents can be labelled ’anti-European’, a prejudicial term which conjures up all sorts of negative associations; thereby standing the truth completely on its head. It is no surprise that the former Conservative MP and ex-Head of the European Movement in Britain, Laura Sandys, has called on supporters to ’always talk about Europe, rather than the EU …’. As we know, it’s the cheerleaders for the EU who are the real anti-Europeans, but that’s another story.
To understand the blatant bias of such terminology, imagine the outcry if the BBC referred to supporters of leaving the EU as ‘pro-British’ and advocates of the EU as ’anti-British’. In the meantime, report any instances where the BBC uses ‘Europe’ to mean EU, by making a formal complaint online with OFCOM.
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Tales From Europe ……..
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Portugal ….. ‘In a general election earlier this month, the ruling Conservative party lost their parliamentary majority and a fifth of their voters. The country’s communautaire President has insisted however, that they continue in office, even though an anti-austerity left wing coalition won more than 50% of the votes and seats and is ready to govern. Anibal Cavaco Silva explains that it is his duty to ‘stop anti-European forces’ and has vowed to deploy all of his powers to ’prevent false signals being sent to financial institutions, investors and markets’. This is the shrivelled reality of democracy in the Eurozone ….. ’ (Tim Montgomery, The Times, 26th Oct)
Russia …. ‘In 2013, before the geo-political tussle (over Ukraine), one third of EU fresh fruit and vegetables exported went to Russia, and one quarter of exported EU beef. Around 75% of EU cabbage, 63% of tomatoes and 53% of all EU apples sold abroad, went to Russia; an export market worth a total of C5.5bn annually to the EU. Between 2003 and 2013, EU exports to Russia grew from C90bn to C325bn. As a result, many European countries became heavily reliant on Russia …… Last year (with imposition of reciprocal sanctions by Russia on EU agricultural produce), EU produced goods sold in Russia fell by 24%, with preliminary figures for 2015 indicating an even greater drop. While Russia is discovering new import markets (60% of all Brazilian meat exports now go to Russia), the Kremlin’s sanctions have led to an oversupply of food in the EU and a breakdown in prices paid to European producers ….’ (Rossiskaya Gazeta, 27th Oct)
Poland ….. ‘The election victory of the Law & Justice Party is welcome for what it reveals about Poland’s attitude to the centralising Franco-German European project …. The EU recently forced Poland to accept a quota of migrants firmly against the wishes of most of its people, who have now dismissed the government which accepted the quotas and elected one which is pledged to oppose any diktat on migrant quotas. Poles want a government that is driven by Poland’s national interest, not a supra-national project designed in Paris, Berlin and Brussels. Law & Justice are also cool about Poland joining the euro, and are concerned that Eurozone nations should not dictate to those with the good sense to retain their national currencies ..…’ (Daily Telegraph, 27th October)
EU (The Failed State) …. ‘Europe’ faces long-term economic decline and the ’love-affair’ of integration is at risk‘, says the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, in a downbeat assessment of the bloc’s future. ’Economically we see the end of Europe’s glory years, compared with what others are doing ….. The dream of a unified continent is at risk … The European Union is not going very well ……’ Mr Juncker added the EU’s share of global output is falling and will soon represent just 15% of worldwide GDP, while 80% of growth is emerging from countries outside the EU. With an ageing population, the EU share of the world’s population has fallen from 20% a century ago, to 7% now and could be just 4% by the end of this century.’
‘We are demographically weakened and will remain so’ said Mr Juncker, (Times, 22nd Oct)
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Local UKIP Branch News ……..
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Ray Finch MEP (UKIP’s Fisheries Spokesman) has been a welcome visitor to Dorset recently. Aside from his own personal fishing trip to Poole, Ray spoke to a UKIP public meeting at Weymouth on 15th October, along with Steve Unwin of ‘Dorset Out’. On 30th/31st October Ray attended the EFDD stall at the Bournemouth Commercial Fishing Exhibition at the BIC, helped by members of Bournemouth branches. Ray has produced some excellent free booklets on the state of our fishing industry, which we are distributing to all with a specialist interest. If you know any fishermen and anglers and would like Ray’s books to give to them, please contact Diana (01202-602427)
Saturday 10th October – we ran an information stall at Wimborne Market, talking to members of the public and giving out leaflets and booklets to help persuade them to vote to leave the EU. We gave out around 150 of William Dartmouth’s trade booklets and overall the public response was very positive. Thanks to all who helped, especially Anita Llewellyn and Jo Evans.
Our branch members have been down to Weymouth to help UKIP South Dorset with delivery of leaflets for the County by-election in Rodwell ward, where Cllr. Francis Drake is standing for UKIP.
Thurs 29th October – at a public meeting organised by ‘Dorset Out’, an audience of around 70 packed into the Elim Waters Edge Church, Branksome to hear Neil Hamilton, Caroline Stephens (Leave EU), David Nevitt, and local pastor Steve Sheppard give eloquent presentations on why Britain should leave the EU. Neil Hamilton was on very good form, particularly his observation that many of the nations in Europe are ‘running away from their recent history’.
Friday 30th October, – Coach & Horses, Wimborne, Mid-Dorset & North Poole’s 4th annual skittles evening was a success and was won (yet again) by Dave Butt’s All-Stars (the Chairman’s XI must report for early practice next year !). Dave B himself recorded the highest overall score, with Steve Martin winning a tense ‘sudden death’ shootout.
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Stories You Won’t Hear on the BBC ……
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‘RIP the British steel industry, once the mighty engine of this country’s industrial base ……. It is true that Chinese exports have pushed down the price of steel, but the issue is not just about prices, it is also about costs. Successive governments have deliberately driven up the single most significant cost for steel producers, with their giant blast furnaces: energy. In 2009, Jeremy Nicholson of the Energy Intensive Users Group, which represents industries employing 200,000 people in the UK (plus 800,000 indirectly through the supply chain) said: ‘a future administration will have to say in public, what ministers and their officials already admit in private, that their renewables target is neither practical nor affordable. Outsourcing our CO2 emissions is not a solution ….. Politicians need to understand that their unilateral action will come at a terrible price in terms of UK manufacturing jobs, investment and export revenue, for no discernable environmental gain’. …….’
‘Neither the Coalition government nor the new all-Conservative one has taken a single step back from the precipice. According to Eurostat, by far and away the highest energy costs in the EU among ‘extra large users’, are those paid by British based firms. In 2014, we were paying on average, just over 9p per Kilowatt hour … more than twice that of France (4.12p per Kw hour) and nearly twice as much as Germany (4.81p per Kw hour …….’ (Dominic Lawson, Daily Mail, 19th Oct)
‘What we are witnessing is the perverse, deliberate creation of market failure for British steel making. The green zealots know this would happen, but their attachment to ideology outweighs their concern for British jobs. The Tories bear responsibility for allowing the destructive green doctrine to triumph over national economic interests. David Cameron saw environmentalism as a way of giving his party a cool new ‘modern’ image, famously declaring that he planned to lead ‘the greenest government ever’….. (Leo McKinstry, Daily Express, 22nd Oct)
‘Under new Brussels rules, farmers who get more than £388,250 from the Countryside Stewardship Scheme (part of the Common Agricultural Policy), will have to display a 6’ x 4’ EU billboard (‘gratitude plaque’) at a location ‘readily visible to the public’. Those given more than £38,250 must display a plaque of at least 3’ x 3’ ……. If recipients of the money fail to display the signs, they face fines or having their funding removed. Around 2,300 UK landowners have applied for the money so far …. ‘ (Daily Mail, 27th Oct)
‘Consider the crazy deal to secure Chinese investment in three new nuclear power plants (Sizewell, Hinkley Point and Bradfield). Why would you give a one-party Communist regime with a track record of espionage, hacking and cyber warfare, such privileged access to Britain‘s crucial energy network ? At a cost to the taxpayer of some £24bn, Hinkley Point will be comfortably the most expensive plant in the world. To fund it, we will be paying subsidies for the next 45 years. Incredibly the government has promised to pay the Chinese a whopping £92.50 per megawatt hour (inflation linked) for the plant‘s output over the next 35 years – that‘s double the current market rate. Even the gormless contestants on ‘The Apprentice‘ could probably have struck a better deal ….’ (Dominic Sandbrook, Daily Mail, 24th Oct)
‘Sun readers would now vote to quit the EU by a margin of 55% – 23% …….. In recent days and weeks (the PM), will surely have felt the ground shifting underfoot …. Even staunch Euro fanatics begin to wonder if the game is up. Some tell me they have flipped from ‘Inners’ to ‘Outers’ almost overnight …..’ (Trevor Kavanagh, Sun, 22nd October)
Britons feel less ‘European’ than the population of any other EU country. 64% in the UK (France 36% Germany 25%) say they do not feel any sense of ‘European’ identity, against just 15% in the UK who would describe themselves as ‘European‘. The ’eurobarometer’ survey has been carried out regularly over the last 20 years. The level of British people who felt ’European’ has actually dropped from 17% in 1999. (Source: NatCen Social Research)
‘The way to save lives is to help refugees as close as you can to the crisis from which they are fleeing. Most Syrian refugees, 6.5 million of them, have not left Syria; they have been internally displaced within their own country. Another 3 million are in camps around the Syrian border. Dramatic though the pictures of migrants walking through the Balkans are, they are only a tiny minority of Syrian refugees …. and have been mixed in with large numbers of people who are better described as economic migrants. Yet so much debate has been focused on this group. (meanwhile) the UN Food Programme trying to feed refugees in and around Syria, has been forced to cut back rations for want of donations from European governments ….’ (Ross Clark, Daily Express, 27th October)
Office of National Statistics figures show that in August 2014, Britain exported £11.6bn of UK-made goods to the EU in 2014, compared with £12bn to the rest of the world. It was the 12th month in a row that Britain’s sales to the rest of the world have outstripped those to the EU ……… Overall in 2014 exports to the EU were down by 5.2%, with exports to the rest of the world up by 5.4% …..’ (Daily Mail, 10th October)
‘NASA scientists have shattered the conventional wisdom that Antarctica’s ice is shrinking, and revealed that the amount of ice is in fact, growing ……. The study, published in the Institute of Glaciology, indicates that recent gains have more than offset losses elsewhere. Satellite data suggests that the Antarctic ice sheet had a net gain of 112bn tons of ice per year between 1992 – 2001, and a net gain of 82bn tones per year between 2003 and 2008. The findings challenge previous research, including the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Study (2013), which claimed the sea level is rising by 0.27mm a year because of ice melting in Antarctica ………..’ (Daily Telegraph, 3rd Nov)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ EVENTS …. EVENTS .… EVENTS ….
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First Thursday each month (3rd Dec, 7th Jan), 7.30pm: Dorset Branches Pub Social at the Charlton Inn, Charlton Marshall. Supporters and friends welcome. Contact John Baxter 01202-897884
Second Thursday each month (10th Dec, 14th Jan), 8pm: Poole Branches Pub Social at Twin Sails Wharf, West Quay Road. All UKIP Supporters and friends are welcome. Contact : david.darling@ukippoole.co.uk
Thurs 26th November, 7.30 pm, UKIP Bournemouth West Pub Social at The Crown, Broadhurst Avenue, Northbourne, Bournemouth BH10 6JW. Contact: duanefarr.ukip@gmail.com (07855 349387)
Friday 11th December, UKIP Mid-Dorset & N. Poole Christmas Lunch ~ Booking form attached.
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Wishing you a Happy Christmas
& Best Wishes for New Year
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Sat 2nd Jan 11.00 am, Chat, Coffee or Snack at Corfe Coffee, 137 Wareham Road, Corfe Mullen, BH21 3HH. Contact Dave Evans, 01202-602856
Sat 6th February, UKIP Mid-Dorset & North Poole AGM 2pm, followed by Public Meeting (3pm) with guest speakers Suzanne Evans (Deputy Chair UKIP) and Steve Unwin (Dorset Out & Leave.EU), at St Paul’s Church Hall, Culliford Crescent, Canford Heath BH17 9DW.
Sat 5th March, UKIP (SW) Spring Conference, Thornbury (Gloucestershire)
Don’t forget to check the monthly Dorset Digest (obtainable via e-mail) for up to date bulletins of ‘What’s On’ locally, as well as checking our branch website www.ukipmiddorset.org
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‘Britain has saved herself by her own efforts, and will I trust save Europe by her own example ….’ (William Pitt the Younger, 1805 after the Battle of Trafalgar)
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Items for next Edition by 30th December to:
John Butler, 20 Nightjar Close, Poole BH17 7YN
e-mail: john.butler@ukipmiddorset.org All items in this newsletter are personal views only and do not necessarily represent the views of the UK Independence Party Mid-Dorset & North Poole
